摘要
考虑到目前地震月趋势以模糊用语进行预测的缺陷 ,本文提出采用数值预测法能更好地适应社会需求 .这种方法是基于地震有自律现象 ,通过建立非线性的数学模型予以实现的 .模型试验结果表明 ,我国大陆地震活动存在有 7～ 8个月左右的循环结构 ,逐月比较预测与实况的震级误差平均低于 0 .2级 ,因而该方法比经验性预报更适宜社会的实际利用 .
Considering the deficiency of using vague language in predicting monthly seismic tendency, we propose a numerical predicting method in the paper, which may be more applicable to the society. The method is based on the 'self-rhythm' phenomenon of earthquake activities, which calculates monthly seismic tendency through nonlinear mathematical model. The result of modeling test shows that there exists a kind of seismic cyclic process of every 7 to 8 months in Chinese mainland, and the average error from comparing monthly predicted and observed earthquake magnitudes is below 0.2. Thus the method is more applicable to the society than the experiential prediction.
出处
《地震学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第5期529-532,共4页
Acta Seismologica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金项目 (10 3730 17)资助
关键词
地震趋势
地震自律
数值模型
预测
seismic tendency
self-rhythm
numerical model
prediction
