气候变暖对中国血吸虫病传播影响的预测

Prediction of the Impact of Climate Warming on Transmission of Schistosomiasis in China

目的 预测气候变暖对中国血吸虫病传播影响的程度及范围。 方法 利用全国 193个气象站 195 1～2 0 0 0年的气象数据资料 ,建立地理信息系统 (GIS)气象数据库 ,分析全国日均温度变化趋势。利用已建立的钉螺和日本血吸虫有效积温 (SDT)模型的结果 ,构建全国不同地区血吸虫病气候 传播模型 ,计算各地钉螺和日本血吸虫年有效积温(ET) ,并应用GIS等技术比较分析ET/SDT比值的时空分布。以 2 0 3 0年和 2 0 5 0年我国平均气温将分别上升 1.7℃和2 .2℃为依据 ,预测未来全国血吸虫病流行区的扩散趋势和高危地带。 结果 建立了全国血吸虫病气象GIS数据库 ,在以前的 5 0年中全国平均温度略呈上升趋势 ,尤其在上世纪 90年代后上升趋势明显 ,回归方程为T年平均 =0 .0 198X -2 8.476。构建了血吸虫病气候 传播模型 ,钉螺和日本血吸虫的ET/SDT的比值随年代略呈上升趋势 ,日本血吸虫的潜在分布区域大于钉螺潜在分布区域。 2 0 3 0年和 2 0 5 0年血吸虫病潜在传播区域预测分布图显示 ,血吸虫病流行区将明显北移 ,2 0 5 0年血吸虫病潜在流行的敏感区域较 2 0 3 0年的明显扩大。 结论 血吸虫病潜在流行区将随气候变暖出现北移 。

Objective To predict the intensity and scale of impact on transmission of schistosomiasis japonica in China caused by the climate warming. Methods By using climate data from 193 weather stations in China from 1951 to 2000, the GIS database was created to analyze the tendency of average daily temperature. By using the results from the effective accumulated temperature models on Oncomelania snails and Schistosoma japonicum , the climate transmission model for schistosomiasis was established at country level, by which the spatio temporal analysis was performed to create the distribution maps of Oncomelania snails and Schistosoma japonicum , respectively, by means of GIS approaches based on the ratio of effective accumulated temperature to the snail or the parasite development temperature (ET/SDT) in all 193 stations. The potential distribution maps with the dispersal risk areas of schisotsomiasis japonica in 2030 and 2050 were created based on forecast data that the average temperature of the country will increase by 1.7 ℃ in 2030 and by 2.2 ℃ in 2050. Results The GIS database of climate schistosomiasis of the country was established. It was found that the average temperature in the last 5 decades inclined, especially after 1990 it increased significantly with its increasing regression formula T =0.0198 X -28.476. The climate transmission model for schistosomiasis was established, and it was found that the geographical distribution of Schistosoma japonicum was much larger than that of Oncomelania snails based on the ratio of ET/SDT. The prediction maps for distribution of schistosomiasis in 2030 and 2050 were created, respectively, which showed that the sensitive areas were extended with the time, the risk of expansion northward for schistosomiasis will be increasing due to directly the climate warming. Conclusion It is predicted that a northward expansion of transmission area of schistosomiasis may occur due to the climate warming, the expanded potential area for schistosomiasis transmission will be important for future surveillance.