应用数学模型预测高血压性脑出血预后

Predicting the prognotic status of the patients of hypertensive cerebral hemorrhage using a mathematical model

目的 建立数学模型,并借此预测高血压性脑出血的预后。 方法对67例术后高血压性脑出血患者进行回顾性研究,按照格拉斯哥预后(GOS)评分,将患者分为两组,预后良好41例,预后不良26例,对两组患者的13个项目进行多因素逐步判别分析。结果出血量、出血部位、二次手术、并发症和康复期治疗5个变量为判断预后的主要因素。据此建立判别函数式,预后良好的回代正确率为95.1％,预后不良的正确率为96.2％,总的判别正确率为95.5％。 结论本判别函数在理论上能较准确地对预后作出判断,可能具有一定的临床参考价值。

Objective To establish a mathematical model to predict the prognotic status of the patients with hypertensive cerebral hemorrhage. Methods The prognosis of 67 cases with hypertensive cerebral hemorrhage were studied retrospectively. According to Glasgow Outcome Scale(GOS), the patients were divided into two groups: one group had favorable prognosis, and the other had unfavorable prognosis. Discriminate analysis was used to analysis the data. Results Discriminate analysis showed that the volume of blood, the location of the hematoma, repeat operation, complication and the treatment in the stage of rehabilitation were the main factors which could be used to predict the prognostic status of the patients with hypertensive cerebral hemorrhage. Based on the five main factors, discriminate function was created. According to this mathematical model, the rate of accurate back substitution to favorable prognosis, unfavorable prognosis and total prognosis of the patients with hypertensive cerebral hemorrhage were 95. 1% , 96. 2% and 95. 5% respectively. Conclusion The discriminate function could predict the prognotic status of the patients with hypertensive cerebral hemorrhage. It may be used in clinical practice.