摘要
An exact forecast of the failures of a sucker rod-pumped well in a production area means much for an oilfield’s operation budget, operational arrangement and production plan. In this paper, according to the characteristics of failed sucker rod-pumped well randomness and strong outburst, with the gray GM (1,1) forecast model and the Markov forecast model combined, gray GM (1,1) forecast model is utilized to handle the primary data of an oilfield, and Markov forecast model is utilized to calculate the state transfer probability of forecast value. Then, the gray Markov forecast model considering the influence of randomness factors is formed. Field results prove that the calculation precision of this method is higher and the practicability is greater.
An exact forecast of the failures of a sucker rod-pumped well in a production area means much for an oilfield’s operation budget, operational arrangement and production plan. In this paper, according to the characteristics of failed sucker rod-pumped well randomness and strong outburst, with the gray GM (1,1) forecast model and the Markov forecast model combined, gray GM (1,1) forecast model is utilized to handle the primary data of an oilfield, and Markov forecast model is utilized to calculate the state transfer probability of forecast value. Then, the gray Markov forecast model considering the influence of randomness factors is formed. Field results prove that the calculation precision of this method is higher and the practicability is greater.
