摘要
针对目前风险分析中风险因素难以量化以及风险分析中存在的计算复杂性问题,该文提出一种对风险因素进行进一步量化分析的方法。首先提出"风险泡"概念并用于风险因素的分析。文章进一步对"风险泡"构成风险因素的过程以及"风险泡"之间的关系进行描述。通过引入风险能量的概念,建立起以"风险泡"为基础的风险模型,实现了对风险因素的结构化建模和量化描述。最后在此模型基础上,提出一种基于"风险泡"概念的风险分析方法,该方法可以降低风险分析中的计算复杂性。
A quantitative analysis method was developed to deal with computational complexity of risk factors and risk analysis simulations.'Risk bubbles' was used as the basis for the risk factor analysis.Methodswere given to construct the risk factors from risk bubbles and the relations among different risk bubbles.The concept of 'risk energy' was used to develop a risk model based on the risk bubble concept.The risk bubble-based analysis method, can reduce the calculational complexity ofrisk analysis simulations.
出处
《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第10期1372-1375,共4页
Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)
基金
国家"八六三"高技术项目(2001AA414230)
关键词
风险分析
风险泡
风险因素
risk analysis
risk bubble
risk factor
