债务融资的国民负担与可承受国债规模分析

On the Citizen Burden of Debt Financing and Endurable Scale of Governmental Debt

本文在对债务融资的国民负担进行描述的基础上,给出了含有非排挤性投资的政府跨时预算约束,从而证明了政府非排挤性投资的积极作用。同时,根据多马的研究范式,进一步给出了含有税收增长率的最大可承受国债规模的决定条件,并对我国目前的财政状况进行了实证分析。分析表明,积极的财政政策并没有使我国的国债规模与赤字规模超出国民经济可承受范围,我国的财政政策仍然有相当宽余的实际运作空间。

Based on the description of citizen burden of debt financing, this article puts forward the governmental dynamic budgeting constraint with non-squeezing-out investment, thereby proves the active function of governmental non-squeezing-out investment. At the same time, according to Domar's research paradigm, this article further brings forward the decisive conditions for maximum endurable governmental debt which including the tax increase rate, and does empirical study on our country's public finance situation. The analysis shows that, active public finance policy has not pushed our country's governmental debt and deficit amount out of the endurable scale, our country's public finance policy still has relatively broad room for practical operation.