资产评估的不确定性分析

Uncertainty Analysis on Asset Valuation

评估师的工作就是为客户提供有关资产的最有价值的信息。而在目前的评估报告中,评估结果仍以一个单一的评估价值来表示,并且只附加了简单的解释,这种评估对客户的来说使用价值相当有限,由于客户不知道单一的评估价值所处的合理价值范围以及相应的概率,在做出投资决策时选择余地很少,有时甚至会产生误导。资产评估中不可避免会存在一定程度的不确定性,当市场和资产条件未发生变化时,评估师本可以做出正确的估价,但当条件变化时,他无法对评估结果的准确性及可靠性发表意见。本文主要探讨的是"正常的不确定性",亦可以简称为"不确定性"。不确定性是评估中普遍存在的一种现象,不确定性的描述和鉴别对客户会有很大的帮助,同时也可以提升评估师工作的可信度。

Appraiser's job is to offer the most valuable information of the asset for his clients, but, at present, appraisal result is still represented by a single value of appraisal and some simple explanations in our reports. The value in use of these reports for our clients is quite limited, since they don't know the reasonable value range the result is in and its related probabil-ity, it is still difficult for them to make their investment decisions, sometimes they are even misled. Uncertainty is inevitable for valuation to some extent. When the market and asset and asset conditions remain unchanged, appraisers could get the correct valuation, but when conditions are changed, they could not give opinion on veracity and reliability of the result of valuation. This article mainly discusses the 'normal uncertainty', also known as 'uncertainty'. Uncertainly is the ubiquitous phenomenon, its description and differentiation is of great help to the clients, and enforces the credibility of appraisers' job.