中国通货膨胀预期研究:调查数据方法

The Study of Inflation Expectations

本文将中国人民银行《居民储蓄问卷调查系统》的定性数据,转换为定量的预期通货膨胀率,并研究了通货膨胀预期的长期性质和短期性质。研究表明,预期是无偏的,在长期中没有过高或者过低估计实际通货膨胀率,但是,由于预期的认知偏差存在自相关,所以不是完全的理性预期;实际通货膨胀率规定了预期,而预期则反映了自我动态运行的实际通货膨胀;消费者的认知偏差对实际通货膨胀率的变动和预期通货膨胀率的变动没有影响。

By transforming the qualitative data from the Consumers Saving Survey Svsten) conducted by the People's Bank of China into quantitative expected inflation data, the paper studies the properties of expectations both in long run and the short run. The results shows that (1) the expectation is unbiased. but the prediction errors of expectations have autocorrelation, thus the inflation expectations are not perfect rational; (2) the actual inflation controls the expected inflation, and the expected inflation reflects the actual inflation; (3) the prediction errors of expectation have no effect on the changes of actual inflation and expected inflation.