银行账户数量、信贷总量和GDP增长的实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Number of Bank Accounts, Bank loans and GDP Growth

本文通过对1995年至2002年河北省银行结算账户开立、银行信贷资金投放和国民经济发展情况的实证研究,认为银行账户数量增长直接反映了银行信贷投放总量增长和国民经济发展,三者之间存在正向发展趋势。分析认为2003年9月实施的《人民币银行结算账户管理办法》,将对银行信贷总量、GDP增长产生积极影响,并预测了2003年至2010年河北省银行账户数量、银行信贷投放总量、GDP增长趋势,提出了账户管理、信贷管理和经济结构调整方面的政策建议。

Based on the empirical study in Hebei Province in the period of 1995 - 2002, the paper concludes that there is a positive correlation among the number of bank settlement accounts, bank loans and economic growth. The study also shows that the 'Administrative Measures Governing RMB Bank Settlement Accounts' promulgated by the People's Bank of China and to be effective in September 1 2003 have active influence on the increase of total bank loans and GDP. Forecast is made on the growing trend of bank accounts, bank loans and GDP from 2003 to 2010 in this province. Finally some policy suggestions are put forward.