全球LNG供求形势及我国的应对措施

GLOBAL LNG SUPPLY/DEMAND SITUATION AND CORRESPONDING MEASURES TAKEN BY CHINA

未来 2 0年全球天然气消费将快速增长。其中 ,北美和欧洲天然气消费量增长超过其产量增长 ,由于其消费基数大 ,将对全球天然气供求格局和跨国贸易产生重大影响。 2 0 0 2年全球LNG贸易量已达到 112 94万吨 ,比 10年前增加了 86 %。根据各国LNG计划实施的实际进度 ,预计 2 0 10年全球LNG供求基本平衡。 2 0 10年后 ,因美国庞大的LNG引进计划将进入大规模实施阶段 ,可能对全球LNG供求格局产生重要影响 ,导致LNG市场由目前的买方市场向卖方市场过渡。从我国天然气供应量和供应安全角度考虑 ,建议国家加快LNG的布局规划和工程建设 ;将引进LNG资源与油气工业“走出去”相结合 ,并通过LNG气源多元化以及各接收终端不同气源的互保互供、相互调剂 ,以保障国家油气供给安全 ;政府引导和推动 ,各方配合与协作 ,发挥多种积极性 ,共同推进我国LNG产业链的良性发展。

The global gas consumption will grow rapidly in the coming 20 years. And the consumption increase will exceed the production increase in North America and Europe, which will influence the global gas supply/demand pattern and international trade seriously since the consumption base is large for the 2 continents. The global LNG-trading amount reached 112, 94 million tons in 2002. and increased 86% more than 10 years ago. According to LNG plan conducted by different countries, it is expected the global LNG supply/'demand will reach balance basically in 2010. Then it will produce important effect on ihe pattern of the global LNG supply; demand and lead the LNG market changing from the buyer-prevailing market to the seller-prevailing market for U. S. to perform its big LNG import pian after 2010. With consideration of gas supply security for China, it is suggested the government speed up the LNG overall arrangment and infrastructure, combine LNG importing with 'Go out' policy of petroleum industry, create diversification of LNG sources and make receiving terminals of different LNG sources coordinating each other to guarantee the security of oil and gas supply for the country.