指数模型拟合法在乙型肝炎疫苗接种后抗体持久性预测中的应用

Application of exponent curve model to study the hepatitis B DNA recombinant yeast derived vaccine antibody levels

目的 探讨乙型肝炎疫苗接种后抗体水平的指数模型拟合方法。方法 利用国产重组(酵母)乙型肝炎疫苗(YDV)接种后5年的观察数据拟合指数模型,用第8年的观察数据对模型的预测值进行验证。结果 根据国产YDV接种5年后的数据所拟合的指数模型为:Y=165.67exp(-0.019X);决定系数R^2为0.98;到第8年时,实际测定值为35mIU/ml,模型预测的结果为27mIU/ml,比实际值低8mIU/ml。接种12年时,其预测的平均抗体水平为10.74mIU/ml,仍维持在10mIU/ml的保护性水平以上。结论 在疫苗接种后,对符合指数线性趋势的抗体数据可拟合指数模型,利用该模型在一定的时间范围内可预测抗体水平持久性。实例拟合的结果表明,由于在第8年时,模型预测值低于实际测定值,因此,模型预测的结果具有可靠性。

Objective To introduce exponent curve model methods in the study of the hepatitis B vaccine antibody level. Methods After the China made vaccine of hepatitis B DNA recombinant yeast derived vaccine (YDV) had been carried out for 5 years, data on the anti-HBsAg' s titer were used to construct an exponent curve model. When the vaccination program had been carried out for 8 years, the predicating results of the model were further tested by observed number. Results The exponent curve model was Y= 165.67exp( -0. 019X) and the R^2 was 0.98. After 8 years, the practical observed number became 35 mIU/ml, and the predicating result of the model was 27 mIU/ml, 8 mIU/ml lower than the observed number. When the vaccine had been carried out for 12 years, the predicating results of the model became 10.74 mIU/ml, still higher than 10 mIU/ml but was still in the effective range. Conclusion An exponent curve model could be constructed, as long as the data of the antibody' s titer was in accordance with the tendency of exponent curve. The model could be used to predict the persistence lever of vaccine antibody under certain conditions. The results showed that after 8 years,the predicting results of the model were reliably lower than the observed number.