地震中短期预报效能的统计检验和统计评分——中短期前兆及预报效能评价之三

Statistic test and evaluation of middle-short term earthquake prediction efficiency Part 3 of mid-and short term precursor and prediction efficiency evaluation

简要介绍了地震预报效能统计检验的基本原理和方法及二种统计评分方法:预报效率值Z评分和相关的V值评分。以1996年及1986～2003年全国地震趋势会商意见、新疆维吾尔自治区地震局1987～1998年月会商意见为例进行了中、短期预报效能的统计评价。结果表明,目前地震中期(年度)预报的有震预报总体上有效,能通过检验,Z1=0.2～0.3,有一定能力;无震预报总体上可以通过检验,Z0=0.15左右,明显低于Z1值;地震短期(月)预报能力和水平很低,总体上仍然在有效预报和盲目预报的边界线上下徘徊。

The article briefly introduces the basic law and method of statistic test of earthquake prediction efficiency and two statistic evaluation methods, i.e. Z grading of prediction efficiency value and V grading of correlative evaluation. Taking 1996, and 1986 to 2003 consultation ideas from countrywide earthquake trend and 1987 to 1998 monthly consultation ideas from Seismological Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region as examples, we make statistic evaluation of mid- and short term prediction efficiency. The conclusion shows that having-earthquake prediction of present mid-term (annual) earthquake prediction is valid on the whole, which passes test, i.e. Z_1 equals to 0.2～0.3, and efficient to a certain degree. Non-earthquake prediction passes test on the whole, and Z_0 equals to 0.15 or so, which is less than Z_1. Capacity and level of short-term (monthly) earthquake prediction are very poor, and is up and down around valid prediction and blind prediction.