美元化、资本外逃与俄罗斯的产出下降

Dollarization,Capital Flight,and the Decline of Output in Russia

资本流出不仅仅是使得资本密集型产品和劳动密集型产品的产出都减少,更重要的是,它使得资本密集型产品产出之减少程度超过劳动密集型产品产出之减少程度。资本流出降低了均衡状态下资本密集型产业的比重,加剧了转轨国家转轨初期产业结构之存量调整。转轨国家转轨初期之产业结构调整不是别的结构调整,而是降低经济中重工业的比重。重工业资本密集度高,资产专用性强,存量调整将造成高额的沉淀成本,这又会进一步地恶化经济绩效。

Capital flight will decrease the output of capital-intensive product and labor-intensive product,and what's more,it will make the decrease of capital-intensive product more serious than that of labor-intensive product.Capital flight will also lower the proportion of capital-intensive industry under an equilibrium state,and intensify the industrial stock adjustment in countries at the early stage of transition.The industrial structure adjustment during this period is nothing but to lower the proportion of heavy industry in economy.However,due to the high capital intensiveness and special function of assets,the stock adjustment of heavy industry will result in a high sunk cost,which in turn will further worsen the economic performance.