产业系统的演化模型与实证分析

Evolution Model and Positive Analysis of Industrial System

本文通过理论分析建立了产业系统整体演化过程的数学模型--Logistic方程,讨论了使用NLS方法估 计模型参数的具体过程和步骤,并选取我国若干产业进行了实证分析,结果显示,产业系统演化的过程遵循Lo- gistic方程曲线。

This article through theoretical analysis sets up a mathematical model-Logistic equation for the general evolution process of industrial system. It then discusses the concrete process and steps to use NLS method to estimate model parameters. Finally it selects some industries in China to conduct positive analysis, the result of which shows that the evolution process of industrial system conforms to Logistic equation curve.