闽台经济发展阶段辨析

A Comparative Analysis on Stages of Economics Development Between Fujian and Taiwan Provinces

闽台因其区域自然背景及历史文化的相似性和经济发展时序递差性成为区域对比研究的理想对象之一。利用闽台相关统计资料分析显示 ,从发展速度、发展规模、产业结构等指标看 ,台湾经济已进入后工业化发展阶段 ,而福建经济正处于工业化的中期发展阶段。通过对闽台不同经济发展阶段影响因子的相关分析及多元回归统计分析表明 ,1978～ 2 0 0 2年间闽台经济发展进程是受不同驱动变量影响、性质上差异明显的两个发展阶段。虽然台湾经济发展道路并不完全适用于福建 ,但台湾经济发展过程中的经验教训以及其经济发展各个阶段的社会经济指标 ,对福建经济发展还是具有一定的启示作用。

Comparative analysis between Fujian and Taiwan could be a good case f or study because of their geographical proximity and historical, cultural simila rity. Fujian and Taiwan had gone through and were in different economic developm ent phases. By using the official statistics, the rate and scale and structure o f economic development in Fujian and Taiwan were analyzed. The results showed th at Taiwan is in the stage of after industrialization and Fujian is in the middle stage of industrialization. However, these are in two different economic develo pment phases and are affected by different driving forces in 1978-2002, by Corre late Analysis and Linear Regression Analysis. Although, the process of economic development in Taiwan doesn't entirely fit for Fujian, Fujian can make use of exp eriences and lectures of economic development process of Taiwan for reference, a nd economic index of Taiwan in different development phases can become apocalyps e for Fujian.