气候变化对金乡儿童急性呼吸道感染发生规律的初步探讨

Preliminary probe to effect of acute respiratory tract infection of children in JinXiang area on climate changes

目的:探讨金乡地区几种气象因子对儿童急性呼吸道感染发生的影响,并建立预测模型,为降低这类疾病的发病率提供依据。方法:利用距平百分率来确定该病流行的年际和月际变化,选取高峰前期的气象因子即平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、平均风速、相对湿度、日照、降雪量同当年急性呼吸道感染发病率做单项回归分析和相关检验,最终得到该病发生流行年概度的预测模型。结果:该病在2月分为发病的高峰期,平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、风速对儿童急性呼吸道感染发生的影响呈正相关(P<0.05),平均降雪量对其发生的影响呈负相关(P<0.01),利用对该病发生率有显著相关的气象因子建立的预测模型为:P(I)=(1)/(1+e-(-348.642+10.398×1+13.826×2-6.759×3+212.541×4-5.71×5)),其历史拟合率达75%。结论:儿童急性呼吸道感染与气象因子有明显的相关性,建立其预测模型是可行的,对疾病的预防有一定的价值。

Objective:To analyse the relation bergen acute respiratory infection in children and meteorologic factors,and establish a predictin model finally.Methods:Single regression and correlation analysis is made between 6 climatic factors(the mean of atmospheric temperature,the minimum atmo- spheric temperature,the maximum atmospheric trmperature,the mean wind velocity,radiation hour,relative humidity,snowfall),and the predictive model was established by the binary logistic regression.Results:The incidence acute respinatory injection presented a posotive coeerlation to the mean of atmospheric temperature,the minimum atmospheric trmperature,the maximum atmo- spheric temperature,the mean wind velocity(P<0.05)and a negative to snowfall(P<0.01),the correlation to reaiation hours and relative humidity was not difference,the prediction model is P(I)=1/1+e-(-348.642+10.398×13.826-6.759×3+212.541×4-5.71×5)Comelmsion:The comelation between Acute Respiratouy Irfection in children and Meteonologic Factors is very distinct,the preditive model is useful certanily to decrease the rate of ARI in the Jinxiang region.