灰色系统理论在地质灾害研究中的应用

Application of the Grey System Model in the Research of Geological Hazards

灰色系统理论的思想和研究方法业已渗透到许多学科并应用于生产实践领域中。笔者讨论了地质灾害领域中的灰色系统特征,列举了灰色系统理论在地震、城市地面沉降、滑坡等地质灾害中的应用实例,为我们展示了灰色系统理论这门80年代的新兴学科在地质灾害领域中的应用前景。

The authors introduce the grey system model into the research of geological hazards and reveal the grey characteristics of geological hazards such as earthquake, ground subsidence and landslide. For the earth system, besides wide and distinct grey characters. it has a random and fuzzy characters. So, it is suitable to use in the geoscience field. The authors forecast the damages from the ground subsidence in a city, landslide in Xintan in the Yangtze Gorges and the time of earthquake occurrence in offshore water in accordance with the grey system model.In result, there is small difference between the prediction and actual values.With the grey association analysis, the earthquake intensity and the different seismic intensity zones have been predicted and classified respectively, which reflect actually the impact from the influence field of the earthquake and the relationship between factors. Then, the quantitative evaluation on scope of earthquake disaster could be on the good conditions.Based on the grey decision method, the combination of general decision model with grey model is used to select favourable measures after given out earthquake prediction in a city of Jiangsu Province, resulting a perfect effect. The grey system model, used in geoscience field, especially in the study of the geological hazards, could be helpful to combine qualitative with quantitative analysis in the research and to enhance the accuracy of the analysis.