亚太大国关系的历史变迁:单极?两极?还是多极?

About Historical Changes in the Relations of Big Powers in the Asia-Pacific Region

亚太大国关系经历了四个阶段变迁。第一阶段是19世纪中叶以前,中国是亚太惟一“超级大国”,在亚太居于支配地位。第二阶段从19世纪中叶至20世纪中叶,亚太形成发育不完善的多极结构,这一时期是亚太最动荡的时期。从1945年到冷战结束,亚太大国关系进入第三阶段,其特征是两极结构。以冷战结束为契机,亚太大国关系结构进入第四阶段。第四阶段,亚太大国关系既不是单极结构或“新两极”对峙,也不是完整意义上的多极结构,而是一种单极、两极、多极结构的混合体。其中美国拥有全面优势,中美关系是亚太支配性的战略关系,但日、印、俄、东盟等力量也将起重要的平衡作用。

The relations among big powers in Asia - Pacific have experienced four stages of change. The first stage started before the mid - 19th century when China was the only ' superpower' and held a dominating position. The second stage was from the mid-19th century to the mid-20th, when multipolar structures were roughly formed. Between 1945 and the end of the cold war came the third stage, which was characterized by the two - polar structure. Then, with the end of the coldwar as a turning point, the fourth stage appeared, during which the relations were just a mixture of the above - mentioned structures. The U. S. A gained the upper hand and the Sino - American relationship was a kind of strategic one, while other forces like Japan, India, Russia and ASEAN played an important role of balance.