变系数回归方程法在洪水预报中的应用

The Application of Regression Equation With Variable Coefficient in Flood Forecast

引入“衰减记忆因子”,对于洪水预报回归方程模型所采用的历史资料信息予以衰减,使被预报的某次洪水观测的近期信息产生重要作用,从而对预报误差进行实时校正.对于洪水运动规律变化较大的河段能够纠正预报的系统误差,提高预报精度.

By use of the decaying memory factors,the historical data or information adopted at regression equation of flood forecast can be decreased,which makes the recent investigation information about the forecasting flood being important. Therefore,the forecasting errors can be corrected on time,and the system errors of forecasting flood at the river branch where flood movement is irregular can also be corrected,and the forecasting precision can be improved.