跨栏跑世界、全国记录的灰色模型及其预测

Gray Model (GM 1,1) and Forecast of Hurdles Records in China and the World

针对运动成绩变化规律的未知性、不确切性和模糊性等特点 ,应用灰色系统理论中的灰色模型方法 ,建立了跨栏跑世界纪录和全国纪录的灰色 GM(l,l)模型 ,并进行了后验差检验和关联度分析 ,结果表明 ,模型精度均为一般 ,说明预测模型具有足够精度 ,可以用来揭示该项运动成绩发展的系统规律。同时 ,运用该模型对 2 0 0 5年的运动成绩进行了预测。

WT5”,6BZ]Based on the characteristics of the laws of change in sports results, such as the uncertainness, indefiniteness and fuzziness, the gray model, GM1,1 of the Chinese and the world hurdles records was established by applying the gray model of the gray system theory. The after check difference examination and the relative degree were analyzed. It was shown that the preciseness of the model is general, which indicates that the forecast model is precise enough, which can be used to reveal the systematic law of the sports result development. of the euent Meanwhile, the sports results in 2005 were predicted by using this model.