我国独生子女规模估计及其生育政策调整对未来人口控制的影响　

Estimate of Single child scale and adjusting birth policy of single child will produce infection to our population control

本文对目前人们关心的有关独生子女的生育政策是否应该调整、调整生育政策会对我国人口发展产生那些影响等问题进行探讨。为了实现这一目的，本文首先给出我国城镇人口中独生子女的规模和年龄分布估计的方法和模型，然后，利用得到的估计值对不同的独生子女生育政策进行队列模拟，通过比较得出结论。

This paper discusses whether birth policy of single child should adjust, and if we shall have adjusted it what infection our population control will be produced. Firstly I have estimated urban single child scale of our country and their special single age distribution. Secondly I give four adjusting birth policy schemes of which I simulale population change. Finally I give some conclusions through comparison of results of simulating population change.