包含自发自用电量情况的负荷预测

A New Approach for Load Forecasting Including Self-production Power

本文针对一种含有自发电的特殊情况来进行负荷预测,对时间序列法在负荷预测的建模中应用,提出了一种ARMAX的模型,结合预测模型,将自发电作为一个大扰动来考虑。通过验证,得到了较好的结果。

A new approach for load forecasting including self-production power is presented in this article. Due to the application of the time series in the modeling, a model for ARMAX is given. In this model, the self-production power is considered as a big disturbance. Validated with the test data, a good result is obtained.