航材消耗的时间序列分析

Forecasting for Aero-Materials' Consumption Rate Based on Time Series Analysis

本文采用时间序列分析法对某种航材故障率进行预测 ,用移动平均法消除时间序列的长期趋势和周期变动 ,然后按月平均法求出季节指数 ,并对季节指数进行调整 ,然后根据拟合的趋势方程对此种航材的故障率进行预测。

This paper develops the method of time series analysis to forecast the consumption rate of the aero-material. It dissolves the influences of long-term trend and period alteration by means of move-average method, then calculates the season exponent and adjusts it. The forecast can be done by trend equation that is set up according to the raw data. It's applicable and useful for the materials' reliability and application.