兼并周期性行为的研究

The Research on the Procydical Behavior in Merger

本文通过分析经济冲击对市场和企业的影响,认为经济冲击不但会影响市场的需求,进而影响产品的价格,而且还会通过影响产品的价格来影响企业的自由现金流量和价值。在此基础上,把经济冲击对企业的影响引入到两企业兼并的模型中,得到了影响企业兼并的两个相反的因素。模型的结果成功的解释了兼并的周期性行为。

Through the analysis of the impact of the economic shocks on the market and firms, we suggest that the economic shocks not only impact the demand of the market, then affect the price of the product, but also impact the firm' s free cash flow through affect the price of the product. Building upon it, by introducing the impact of economic shocks on firms to model of merger between two firms, we get two contrary factors impact the firm' s merger. The result of the model successfully explains the procyclical behavior in merger.