应用Leslie矩阵对布氏田鼠种群数量的模拟分析

Forecast population of Brandt's vole by using matrix model

采用 Leslie 矩阵对内蒙古太仆寺旗草原的布氏田鼠作了种群动态模拟分析。结果表明:①该模型数值模拟的准确率达到87.7%。②矩阵特征值λ既表达了在调查时段种群达到稳定增长状态的周限增长率,又可作为衡量种群变动趋势的指标:当λ>1.232时布氏田鼠种群处于上升期,当λ趋于1.232时种群处于高峰期,当λ<1时种群处于下降期。③不同增长期的年龄结构与繁殖率的差异显著,在种群上升期,幼鼠比例明显高于高峰期和下降期。④在上升期,繁殖率为关键因子;在高峰期和下降期的关键因子是存活率。

Using the Leslie matrix model,we simulated the population dynamics of Brandt′svole,Microtus brandti,in the steppe in Taipusi Qi,Inner Mongolia.The result showed that:①the simulation accuracy of this model was 87.7%;②the infinite increase rate λ was goodindicator of population trend;when λ>1,the population will increase;when λ→1,the popu-lation will approach the peak phase,and when λ<1,the population will decrease;③the agestructure differed greatly among different population phases;in the increase phase,there washigher proportion of young voles;④the sensitivity analysis showed that reproduction was thekey factor in the increase phase;in decline and peak phases,survival rat was the key factor.