A Probabilistic Estimation of Strong Earthquakes' Occurrence in Aeghion Area, Central Greece

The probability of occurrence of strong ( M W≥6 0) earthquakes in the area of Aeghion (Central Greece) is determined by Bayes statistics. A catalogue of strong shocks around the city of Aeghion since 1794 is used. For the purposes of our study two distributions of earthquakes’ occurrence are considered. In applying the Bayes approach, a Poisson distribution, which is a memoryless one, is assumed. In order to reinforce the result a time dependent model (normal distribution) is also used. An effort is made to find the probabilities of earthquake occurrence for successive decades are determined by both distributions. The estimated probability for a strong earthquake to occur during 1996～2005 in relation to the Bayes approach shows that the year 2004 is the most likely for this future event. A pattern is also revealed which suggests that the earthquakes in the examined area occurred in clusters (in time). The strong earthquakes in these clusters occurred in quadruplets.