中国能源消费与经济增长的协整与误差校正模型研究

Co-integration Analysis and an Error Correction Model of China's Energy Consumption and Economy Growth

详细研究中国从1954～2003年间年度GDP和能源总消费以及能源消费各构成部分(包括煤、石油、天然气和水电力等)之间的长期均衡关系。研究结果表明GDP分别与能源总消费、煤炭消费之间存在协整关系,而GDP与石油、天然气和水电之间不存在协整关系,进而分别建立了GDP与能源总消费以及GDP与煤炭消费之间的误差校正模型。

This paper researches on the relationship between China's GDP and energy consumption(including coal,(petroleum,)natural gas and electricity) from 1954-2003 in detail. The result indicates that the GDP and coal consumption, GDP and (coal) consumption exist co-integration model, thus we established the ECMs(Error Correction Model) on the GDP and energy consumption, GDP and coal consume separately.