内生农业技术进步的二元经济增长模型——对“东亚奇迹”和中国经济的再解释

A Growth Model of Dual Economy with Endogenous Agricultural Technology Progress——The Re-Analysis of “East Asian Miracle" and Chinese Economy

通过吸收内生增长理论的思想 ,修正外生农业技术进步的假设 ,本文提出了一个内生农业技术进步的二元经济增长模型 ,并以此对倍受瞩目也颇多争议的“东亚奇迹”及中国经济 ,从二元经济结构转换的角度进行了分析。本文认为 ,“东亚奇迹”是传统农业劳动力不断转向现代非农业部门的结果 ;是现代部门以资本反哺传统部门 ,推动农业技术进步 ,促进劳动力转移的结果 ;也是现代部门均衡发展 ,吸纳剩余劳动力 ,加速结构转换的结果。因此 ,虽然非农部门的全要素生产率提高不够显著 ,但劳动力结构转换仍然推动经济实现了持久的高速增长。

This paper absorbs the idea of endogenous growth theory and discards the orthodox assumption of exogenous agricultural technology progress, and constructs a growth model of dual economy with endogenous agricultural technology progress. The paper persist in that the Chinese economy and East Asian Miracle are the results of structural transformation from traditional agriculture sector to modern non-agriculture, the results of agricultural technology progress pushed by the capital offered by modern non-agriculture sector to speed up the large inter-sector reallocations of labor, and the results of the high rates of capital accumulation in modern sector to strengthen the structural transformation. So, these economies could keep high rates of output growth for a long time although there was not remarkable total factor productivity growth.