城乡收入差距与人口流动模型

An Analysis of the City-Country Income Gap Function and the Population-Flow Model

通过辨析人口流动模型中的刘易斯模型和托达罗模型的关键分歧,即农业劳动者在城市的工资是如何决定的,可以解释为什么大规模的人口流动没有显著提高中国农民的收入,以及巨大的城乡差距为什么没有导致农业劳动者在城市中的大量失业等问题。我国城乡收入差距存在的关键在于:中国经济转型中保留的城乡间的存量体制具有自我强化的机制,城乡二元体制的转换可能因为城市部门缺乏激励而陷入停滞。

By analyzing the key difference of Lewis-model and Todaro-model about population-flow, namely, how to decide the agriculture worker wages in city, this thesis explains the reason why large-scale population flow in China does not distinctly increase the income of farmer, and why enormous city-country gap does not cause the unemployment of agriculture worker in large quantity in the city. The key causation is City-Country balance-system in Chinese economic transformation, which has self-enhancing mechanism. The conversion of dual City-Country system may plunge into stagnation because the city departments lack encouragement.