多水电站联合长期预报水情方法研究

A method for long term flow regime forcasting in a multi-storage system

研究相邻水电站和本站不同预报项目之间水情的相关关系,在逐步回归方法的基础上对所选因子进行优化筛选,使预报的结果与实测值最为接近,然后用已有的相关关系对所得的预报结果作参照验证或修正。该方法可提高预报精度,基本上能满足水电站对水情预报的要求,提高了水电站的经济效益。

An analysis is made on the relevant relations of the flow regime in different predicted items between the joined hydraulic power stations and the station concerned. On the basis of the method of steping regression, the author optimizes and filters the factors selected to make sure that the result predicted is close to the reality. The existing relevant relations can be used to validate or correct the predicted result. This method improves the precision of prediction, meets the requirement of flow regime prediction, and raises the economic benefits.