固定汇率制度与货币政策有效性的理论研究和现实分析

A Theoretical Study and Realistic Analysis of Fixed Exchange Rate Regime and Monetary Policy Validity

汇率选择理论表明,固定汇率制下货币政策趋于无效。我国汇率制度实质上是钉住美元的固定汇率制度。我国现行汇率制度在汇率政策和货币政策的冲突、货币政策独立性、外汇储备内生性、货币政策目标双重化、货币政策利率传导机制、货币政策效力等方面对我国货币政策运行存在多方制约。提高我国货币政策有效性必须重新选择我国的汇率制度。我国现实经济条件决定了我国汇率制度改革的中期目标和近期选择是建立汇率目标区,长期目标则是建立浮动汇率制。

Theory of exchange rate regime option demonstrates that monetary policy is invalid under fixed exchange rate regime. China's existing exchange rate regime is in fact Dollar pegged fixed exchange rate regime. It constrains the performance of China's monetary policy in the following aspects:conflicts between exchange rate policy and monetary policy, independence of monetary policy, internalization of foreign exchange reserves, dualisation of monetary policy ultimate goal, effects of interest rate channel of monetary policy transmission mechanism and effects of monetary policy. To promote validity of China's monetary policy requires reforming the existing exchange rate regime. China's current economic situation determines that the short-term objective of the exchange rate regime reform is to establish exchange rate Target Zone, while the long-term objective is to establish floating exchange rate regime.