我国积极财政政策的“财政幻觉”分解与计量检验

Econometric Tests for the Components of Fiscal Illusions in China's Active Fiscal Policy

在财政支出中,由于公众无法正确识别公共物品价格,可能存在一定程度的"预期幻觉"和"赤字幻觉"。这些"财政幻觉"导致公众低估公共物品价格,从而形成公共物品一定程度上的供给短缺,体现在政府投资需求快速增长,最终影响社会资源的配置效率。实证检验发现,我国经济当中同时存在"预期幻觉"和"赤字幻觉",为此需要适当降低公共物品支出,注重财政支出的产出效果,以增强积极财政政策的乘数效应。

In fiscal expenditures, since the public could not correctly recognize the prices of public goods, there might be, to some extent, 'expectation illusions' and 'deficit illusions'. These 'fiscal illusions' cause lower price estimation and thus lead to the supply shortage of public goods, which is manifested in the rapid growth of the demand for government investment, finally resulting in the ineffective allocation of social resources. Empirical tests show that 'expectation illusions' and 'deficit illusions' coexist. Therefore, we ought to properly decrease the expenditure of public goods, pay attention to the output effects of fiscal expenditure so as to enhance the multiplier effect of active fiscal policy.