我国税收负担对经济增长影响的经验分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of Tax Burden of Personal Section on Economic Growth in China

文章在总结既有研究的基础上,把财政支出纳入到了税收负担分析的框架内。通过对我国经验数据的实证分析,发现我国的税收负担即使在考虑政府支出的情况下对经济也具有显著的抑制作用,但这种抑制程度在两种情况下有着很大的差异。在不考虑政府支出时,税收负担每提高一个百分点,经济增长就会下降0 713个百分点。但在考虑到财政支出之后,税收对经济增长的抑制程度由原来的0 713个百分点下降到0 33个百分点左右。遵循同样的分析思路,文章还通过对巴罗模型的扩展计算了我国现阶段最适的税收负担水平。通过计算得出当前我国中口径的税收水平在不考虑政府支出时大致为18 6%,但考虑到政府支出的作用后,中口径的税负水平上升至20 3%左右。

Based on existing research, the paper brings the government expenditure into the analytic framework of tax burden. Through empirical analysis of our country's experience data, we find that, even though government expenditure is considered, tax burden obviously has a negative effect on economic growth, which will have a very large divergence under two kinds of settings. When government expenditure is not considered, if tax burden increases one percent, the economic growth will decrease by 0.713 %. When government expenditure is considered, however, the constraint of tax on economic growth will be dropping from 0.713 to 0.33 %. Following the same logic, the paper also calculates the most suitable tax burden in China at present on the basis of Barrow Model. Through computation, our conclusion is that the medium caliber tax burden is approximately 18.6 % without considering government expenditure, however, it rises to 20.3% or so when government expenditure is taken into consideration.