疟疾发病率变化趋势的曲线拟合分析

STUDY ON CURVE FITTING OF INCIDENCE OF MALARIA

目的 :探寻适合我区疟疾发病特征的相对最优曲线拟合模型。方法 :利用 10种曲线模型 (指数模型、对数模型、幂函数模型等 )拟合疟疾发病率曲线。结果 :通过对拟合优度的计算可知 ,幂函数模型相对最优 ,在 10种模型中最适合于我区疟疾发病率资料的拟合。结论 :幂函数模型能较好地分析该地疟疾发病情况 ,该地已由疟疾高发区转变为疟疾低发区 ,未来

Objective:To explore the optimum curve model which fit the data of incidence of malaria best relatively.Methods:Adopting 10 kinds of curve fitting models,such as power model,index model,logarithm model and ect, to fit the curve of incidence of malaria. Results:The power model is optimum among the ten models,which indicates the model fit the fact best.Conclusion:The power model is most suitable for analyzing the data of incidence of malaria in Long Gang district of Shen Zhen,and the incidence in this place has fell down to a low level.The incidence of malaria in such area will continue dropping year by year in the following 3 years.