XX饼干的牛鞭效应实证分析

Empirical Study of XX Biscuit's Bullship Effect

本文运用Fransoo和WouterS的牛鞭效应测量模型，分析了国内XX饼干的特定案例，从生产商和零售商两个环节上对牛鞭效应作出测量，指出牛鞭效应的显著与否，首先与产品本身特性相关，其次与企业在供应链上所处位置相关。并且对其所采取的对策从结构性策略和决策性策略两个层面做了框架分析，指出仅仅依靠决策性策略无法完全解决由于供应链本身组织结构和产品特征所导致的内生的牛鞭效应。

This paper is dedicated to measure and analyze the occurrence of the bullwhip effect along the XX Biscuit's supply chain, based on Fransoo and Wouter's model. It is concluded that the extent of the bullwhip effect is predetermined by the product nature and the company's position on the chain. This paper also introduced structural and/or tactical solution, and analyzed ⅩⅩ Biscuit's efforts on the bullwhip effect.