在役抗震结构基于马尔科夫过程的最优维修策略分析

ANALYSIS OPTIMAL MAINTENANCE STRATEGY FOR EXISTING ASEISMATIC STRUCTURE BASED ON MARKOV PROCESS

根据抗震设防的三水准要求 ,对结构可能存在的状态分类并设定相应的维修策略。采用马尔科夫过程理论 ,建立了在役抗震结构最优维修策略的数学模型 ,分别确定了在不同维修策略下的状态转移概率矩阵和报酬矩阵 ,并计算结构的极限状态转移概率向量和期望总花费。通过对维修策略的优化分析 ,得出了期望总花费最小者为最优维修策略。这样可以根据结构所处的不同状态安排相应的最优维修策略 。

The state of aseismic structure is classified as several sorts according to “Code for Seismic Design of Building”(GB 50011-2001)and corresponding maintenance strategy is set also.A mathematical model of optimal maintenance strategy based on Markov process for aseismic structure is built.State transition probability matrix and reward matrix are determined according to the different maintenance strategies,then structure limiting state transition probability vector and expected total cost are calculated.By optimization analysis of maintenance strategy for aseismic structure,the optimal maintenance strategy which is the minimal expected total cost can be get.An optimal maintenance strategy is arranged according to the state of structure.All of these provide a scientific basis for decision-making.