2003年华北初雪的数值模拟和诊断分析

Numerical Simulation and Diagnostic Analysis of the First Snow in North China, 2003

采用中国气象科学研究院数值预报中心自主开发的GRAPES全球数值模式 ,对2 0 0 3年 1 1月 6～ 7日华北地区首次大到暴雪过程进行了数值模拟试验 ,并利用模式输出的物理量场对降雪过程作了天气动力学诊断分析发现 :GRAPES全球数值模式能够较好地模拟出高低空环流形势场特征和主要影响天气系统 ,雨雪区的范围、走向及大到暴雪的落区 ,加进云图同化资料后对强降水模拟效果明显优于未加云图资料的模拟 ,但对于 2 5mm及以上降水区预报范围偏大出现空报。该模式能够提供较为准确的高分辨率的诊断分析资料。

The first snow in North China during 6—7 Nov. 2003 is simulated by the GRAPES global numerical model developed by the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences. The analysis of the output data indicates that GRAPES model can simulate out circulation's evolution og high and low level and the main synoptic systems,beside the distribution of psecipitation areas and the precipitation cells. The effect of simulation inserted cloud data is better than not inserted. But precipitation areas above 25mm are boti too large. The model can provide correct and high resolution data of diagnostic analysis also.