政治的经济周期理论的发展

Development of Theories on Political Business Cycle

政治的经济周期是指由政治过程引发的周期性的经济波动。传统的宏观经济学认为,政府是理性的规划者,政府的任务就是消除经济波动的因素。政治的经济周期理论研究者把政府看成是经济中的一个内生变量,政府中的决策者不是独立于政策之外的。为了能当选,政治家会操纵宏观经济政策最大化其当选的概率,从而引起经济的周期性波动。

Political business cycle refers to the cyclical economic fluctuation caused by political operations. According to the macroeconomics, the government is supposed to be a rational designer responsible for eliminating factors that will lead to economic fluctuation. Theorists of political business cycle, however, view the government as an internal variable in economy. Policy makers in the government are insiders of policies. They will see to it that the macroeconomic policies maximize their probability of winning elections. And it is this aspect that leads to cyclical economic fluctuation.