投资效率、资本形成与宏观经济波动——基于金融发展视角的实证研究

Efficiency of Investment, Capital Accumulation and the Fluctuation of Macro Economy: An Empirical Research from the Perspective of Fin ancial Development

改革开放以来 ,中国经济一直保持高速增长。但是 ,在这一过程中投资效率不断下降 ,储蓄转化为投资的效率不高 ,经济增长的质量和持续性并不让人乐观。本文针对这一情况 ,从金融发展视角分析资本形成水平、投资效率、储蓄向投资转化效率以及由此产生的宏观经济波动 ,并运用中国 1 978— 2 0 0 2年的数据进行计量检验。研究结果显示 ,虽然总体而言 ,90年代后金融发展与经济增长的相关性增强 ,但金融体系对投资效率和储蓄转化效率的改善极其有限 ;作者认为 ,投资效率低下 ,进而全要素生产率 (TFP)不高是影响宏观经济波动的重要因素。

China has maintained high-speed economic growth since the economic reform. Howe v er, the sustainability of such growth is open to question, since the marginal ef ficiency of investment is decreasing and the percentage of domestic savings used for investments is low. This paper studies the formation of capital, the effici ency of investment, the percentage of domestic savings used for investments and the fluctuation of macro economy from the perspective of the development of fina ncial sector, making econometric analyses with 1978—2002 data. The findings sho w that despite a higher correlation between financial development and economic gr owth since the 1990s, the correction of financial system to investment efficienc y and improvement of percentage of domestic savings used for investments are lim ited. We hold that the inefficiency of investment and with that the inefficiency of TFP are the major factors leading to fluctuation of macro economy.