转型期中国股市变迁及其绩效的实证研究

Transitions and Performances of China's Stock Market in the Transitional Economy: An Empirical Study

中国经济的微观机制改革正在进行。从改革三方参与者(国有借方、私人借方和私人贷方)出发,分析中国转型期股市变迁的一般路径,并对股市变迁的绩效进行实证检验后,我们发现,虽然股市变迁改善国有借方的治理结构以及融资渠道,但是其异化的功能使股权结构畸形,从而影响上市公司的绩效;同时,股市发展通过影响储蓄率产生对金融中介的替代效应,从而也对经济增长的作用机制产生不良影响。因此目前的主要任务是不断减少国有股权的份额,增加私人借方的比重,从而促使股票市场进一步改革与发展。

A reform is being undertaken in the micro-mechanism of our economy. Starting from three participators ( state-debtor, private-debtor and private-lender) to analyze the tendency of the changing stock market, we have found that, although changes in stock market help advance the reform of state-debtors'borrowing-lending structure, and improve financing, yet their alienating forces bring forth a malformation in the stock-share structure so as to affect negatively its performance. At the same time, the development of stock market puts the rate of saving under its sway, thus substituting financial intermediaries, and casting negative influence on economic growth. Therefore, our present task is to cut down state-owned capital shares and to increase those of the private, so as to further advance reform and development of stock market.