当前货币政策的影响和后续演化分析

The impact of current monetary policy and its likely evolution

存款准备金比率的上调有积极和消极两方面的影响。鉴于信贷增长的强劲和外汇占款持续增加,为降低货币供应量过快的增速,本文估计9～12月货币政策仍然趋向稳中偏紧,但其对债市的影响不再一味偏空。

The lifting of reserve ratio has both positive and negative impacts. In light of the solid credit growth and the increasing RMB equivalent of forex reserve, China's monetary policy is expected to remain stable but slightly tight in the last four months of this year so as to keep in check the fast-expanding money supply. Such a monetary policy does not just mean negative any more to China's bond market.