山东省黄淮海平原林业发展战略目标的研究

STUDY ON STRASTEGIC OBJECTIVE OF FORESTRY DEVELOPMENT IN HUANG-HUAI-HAI PLAIN WITHIN SHANDONG PROVINCE

一、前言黄淮海平原是我国最大的冲积平原,包括京、津、冀、豫、苏、皖五省二市部分地区。1988年国务院决定开发黄淮海平原,主要是以改造中低产田为重点,以增产粮食为中心,实行农林牧副渔综合开发。山东省地处黄淮海平原中部,辖83个县,区内地理位置优越,交通方便,资源丰富,劳力充足,有利于农业综合开发。但在人均耕地日趋减少的情况下,平原林业如何发展,这是一个新课题。林业发展规模和布局要根据社会经济发展需要和自然资源的可能性来确定,由于山东省黄淮海平原森林生态系统是一个复杂的开放系统,因此,我们应用系统动力学的原理和方法,建立林业发展战略动态仿真模型。

The dynamic imitation model of forestry development strategy for Huang-Huai-Hai plain within shandong province was established from the points ofsystematical analysis and the coordinative development of agriculture, forestryand animal husbandry. It reveals the dynamic change of forest area, grow-ing stock and cutting volume, and the enhance trand of ecological and eco-nomic benefits for a long or middle term. The best determination of forestrydevelopment strategy for this area can be elected among them, therefore thisstudy provides the scientific bases for working out a long or middle term fore-stry developmental implement plan, and for making management decision.