摘要
林木种子产量预测预报是种子经营工作的重要环节。传统的预测预报方法一般都比较粗放,难以满足当今生产管理的需要,如产量目测法、标准枝法等。近年来有人应用气象学法和灰色动态模型预测法预测林木种子产量,尽管工作量小,技术先进,但由于难以获得可靠的产量历史资料,难以普遍应用。一个好的预测方法必须具备下述三个条件:1.时间超前;2.精度高;3.简便实用。基于这一思路,本文在研究杉木球花及球果在树冠上分布规律的基础上,探讨了利用开花结实信息段预测杉木种子园和一般林分球果产量的方法。
The distributions of female and male cone, as well as seed cone in thecrown of Chinese fir (Cunningbania lanceolata Lamb. Hook,) trees either fromseed orchard or normal forest land are investigated by growth age section inShangganshan forest farm, Shanggao county, Jiangxi province. Based on this,the information section of flowering and fruiting forecasting the corn cropof a tree is developed by progressive regression. The results indicate that theway of forecasting the cone crop of a individual tree has a higher accuracyand can be used widely.
出处
《林业科学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1993年第5期443-448,共6页
Scientia Silvae Sinicae
基金
林业部八.五课题<主要造林树种开花结实规律和种子产量预测预报研究>的一部分
关键词
杉木
开花结实
球果
产量
预测
Chinese fir
Information section
Flowering and fruiting cone crop prediction
