林分生长模型研究的进展

The Development of Studies on Stand Growth Models

本文叙述了林分生长模型的发展及目前研究方向;评价模型的分类方法和各种模型的关系及应用范围,强调模型系的相容性及完备性原则,指出近代模型往往是一个森林系统,大都含有多个被预测的变量和说明变量,必须注意因子间的关系,用高次、多项式方程决不是好方法。因子间的“相互预报”是模型中的大问题,方程组之间的“循环估计”往往产生有偏估计。

In this paper, the classification and research of stand growth models are stated from the view of the history of stand growth models. The relationship and application range of various types of stand growth models are evaluated. The principles of compactness and completeness of a model system are emphasized. Some problems which we should pay attention to in the establishment of stand growth models are pointed out.