经济发展、产业结构调整与城镇建设用地规模控制——以马鞍山市为例

Economic Development, Industrial Restructuring and Scale Regulation of Urban Construction Land: The Case of Maanshan City

马鞍山市目前正处于城市产业结构调整及功能转型过程中。该研究以马鞍山市为例,通过统计描述、定性分析,系统地考察了人口城市化水平、经济发展水平、产业结构调整与城镇建设用地规模之间的关系,研究了在经济发展过程中如何合理确定和控制城镇建设用地规模的问题,并提出了一个待验证的假说。随后,用经济计量模型:Yi=α+β1X1i+β2X2i+β3X3i+εi验证了所提出的假说,并估计人口城市化水平、经济发展水平、产业结构调整等社会经济驱动力因子对城镇建设用地规模的影响。计量模型估计结果表明,城市化水平、经济发展水平与产业结构调整对城镇建设用地规模的影响具有不同的作用方向,城市化水平、经济发展水平带动了城市用地规模的扩张,而产业结构调整则有利于城市用地的集约化和用地结构的优化。研究结果验证了所提出的假说,其结论可以有力支持当前的城市产业结构调整以及功能转型政策,对其他的转型城市而言,也具有重要的借鉴意义。

Maanshan City, as a typical industrial city, is in the course of urban industry restructuring and function transferring.This paper, taking Maanshan City as an example, statistically reviews and reveals the relations between urban construction land and its influencing factors, such as population urbanization, economic development and industry restructuring.And the paper estimates econometric models of the socioeconomic drivers of urban construction land increase.The relations between variables are revealed by the model Y_i=α+β_1X_(1i)+β_2X_(2i)+β_3X_(3i)+ε_i, and its econometric results are revealed.To reveal the relations ulteriorly, the paper analyses the econometric results by integrating land use elasticity.The results indicate that population urbanization and economic development had a positive impact and that industry restructuring had a negative impact on the scale of urban construction land.The scale of urban construction land grows 0.87%(about 34.873 hm^2), which was driven by 1% of population urbanization's growth.Urban construction land's scale expands 0.26%, with 1% of per capita GDP growth.That is to say, 10,000 yuan of per capita GDP growth causes an expansion of 872.746 hm^2 in the urban's scale.However, urban industry restructuring has favorable effect on intensive land use.With 1% of the scope of industry restructuring (or: the ratio of third industry to second industry) growth, 0.15% of urban expansion could be prevented, that is to say, 13.458 hm^2 land could be freed of being occupied by the expansion of urban.The results of the paper provide a strong theoretic and empirical support for current policies on urban industry restructuring and function transfer and have a reference value for other cities that are undergoing economic transfer.