新疆地震预报研究

SEISMIC PREDICTION RESEARCH IN XINJIANG

新疆的地震预报是1970年开始的。二十多年来在“边观测、边研究、边预报”、“多路探索、多兵种联合作战”、“走综合预报之路”的方针指导下取得了长足的进展。建设了43个地震台站,投入189套仪器,建成了遍布全疆的地震无线通讯网,开展了历史地震调查和地震烈度区划工作,建立健全了地震会商预报制度,进行了多方面的地震预报研究。实际地震预报统计分析表明,扣除自然发震概率之后,趋势预报的成功率约0.3,短临预报的成功率约0.1。在前兆台网控制范围内取得了一些震例,说明地震确实是有前兆的,但又是非常复杂的。地震预报作为科学难题还有漫长的路要走。作者简要地讨论了地震观测的间接性和地震异常的离散性、难以区别的地震异常和地壳变动异常、建立在复杂现象基础上的地震前兆以及地震的混沌性对地震预报的影响等科学问题。

The seismic prediction research,started in 1970 in Xinjiang,has got an advancing development through these years. Based on guidance of 'Observing while studying and forecasting','Researching in many ways'and'Following the comprehensive prediction line',43 seismic stations have been set up while 189 sets of instruments been put into use. Recently, a wireless communication network for earthquake monitoring has covered the whole region in Xinjiang. The works on seismic intensity regionlization and historical earthquake investigation have been carrying out. Also a good seismological consideration system is established and amplified. In a word, the seismic prediction research work has been smoothly carrying on in many aspects.In fact,the statistical analysis showed that the successful rate of trend forecasting is about 0. 3 percent,eliminating the probability of natural events,and the short - term and impending earthquake forecasting is about 0. 1. Some examples of earthquakes that had been captured within the controlling range of the precursory networks presented that earthquake is really of forewarning signs but quite complexity,as it is now still a key problem for us to work out. In the paper,the author tried to make a chief description on several difficult targets ass the discontinuity of observations, discreteness of earthquake anomaly,the hard - to - distinguish anomalous seismograms and the obvious variation in the crust. Above all, the background of seismic precursory phenomena and chaos to shock prediction are discussed as well.