北天山地震带地震活动最大熵谱分析和周期拟合

MAXIMUM ENTROPY SPECTRAL ANALYSIS AND PERIODIC FITTING OF SEISMIC ACTIVITIES ON NORTH TIANSHAN SEISMIC ZONE

根据对本世纪以来北天山地震带地震活动最大熵谱分析的结果,给出了该带地震活动的6个主要周期,并用Householder变换最小二乘法对周期参数作了估计,建立了周期模型并进行外推预测。认为:自1990年起北天山带已进入一个新的地震活跃时期。本文还讨论了外界因素对地震活动的影响。

According to the maximum entropy analysis for seismic activities of North Tianshan seismic zone in this century,six main periods were given on this zone. The periodic parameters were estimated by least sequare method of Householder transform, also the periodic model was set up to extropolate the predicting values. We hold that the seismicity on this zone indicating a new active, period since 1990 has begun. Finally,some external factors having effects on the seismic activity were also discussed.