通货膨胀、真实利率与农户粮食库存1980～2003年中国农户存粮行为的实证分析

Inflation, Real Interest Rate and the Farmer's Stock of Grain: An Empirical Analysis of the Grain-stocking Behavior of Chinese Farmers during 1980-2003

理解通货膨胀、真实利率、农户存粮行为与真实粮价之间的关系是正确理解我国粮食市场波动、进而合理评价我国的粮食流通体制改革的关键。本文利用一个修正的无穷期现金先行模型导出了农户的资产选择方程 ,进而建立了一个由农户人均粮食库存方程、农户人均粮食产量方程、粮食需求方程和一个包含了粮食价格决定机制的粮食市场均衡条件组成的联立方程组。利用1 980～ 2 0 0 3年的经验数据 ,对上述联立方程组进行检验的回归结果表明 ,在控制了农户人均纯收入、农户粮食产量和真实粮价对农户存粮行为影响的条件下 ,真实利率预期对农户的存粮水平有显著的反向影响。另外 ,回归结果也表明 。

This paper tries to understand the relations among inflation, real interest, farmers' stocking of grain and the real grain price. We derive an equation of asset selection by the farmer from a Cash-in-Advance model. With it, we then set up the simultaneous equations on the stock of grain per farmer, the grain output per farmer, the grain consumption per capita, and the equilibrium of grain market. The regression result with the data from 1980 to 2003 suggests that the farmer's stock of grain is affected by the farmer's expectation of real interest negatively and significantly.