SARS控制策略仿真研究:防控措施效果比较

Simulation Research of SARS Control Strategy in China: Prevention and Control Measures Effect Comparison

通过对SARS的流行病学分析,建立了SARS流行病学动态反馈仿真模型,并研究了该模型的仿真实现技术。通过仿真分析得出在SARS发病早期必须同时采用“扩大疑似病例的处理范围”和“限制人口自由流动”两种措施,才能有效抑制SARS的扩散;当病人的平均自由散毒时间低于10天以下时,此时控制的重点应放在加强扩大疑似病人的隔离范围上,这样才能有效降低SARS的扩散速度并减轻经济影响;另外,还给出了两种控制措施对SARS控制效果的影响及SARS的扩散趋势是否被抑制住的判断标准等,这些结论不仅对SARS防控方案的优化非常重要,而且所建立的模型及其仿真实现技术对禽流感等其他疫病的流行病学及防控策略研究都具有广泛的普适性意义。

Through the SARS epidemiology analysis, we have established the SARS epidemiology dynamic feedback simulation model, and have studied the simulation realization technology of this model. Through the simulation analysis, we know that in the early time when SARS arises, we must simultaneously use two kinds of measures: expand the treatment ranges of suspected case and limit population flows freely to suppress the diffusion of SARS effectively. When the patient's average time that he can spread virus freely in public is lower than 10 days, this emphasis of the control should be put in the enhancement of the expand the treatment ranges of suspected case. In this way both the propagation rate of SARS and the economical influence can be effectively reduced. In addition, it has also produced the control effect influence of the two kinds of control measures to SARS and the judgement standard that whether or not the SARS proliferation tendency is suppressed and so on. These conclusions are very important to optimizing the SARS prevention and control plan. Moreover, the established model and the simulation realization technology have the widespread general significance to the epidemiology and andstrategy research of diseases such as avian influenza.