基于盲数理论的地下水允许开采量计算初探

Calculation of Groundwater Allowable Withdrawal Based on Blind Number Theory

基于地下水系统所具有的多种不确定性特征,运用盲数理论,定义了水文地质参量盲数等基本概念,在此基础上,尝试性地提出了盲信息下地下水资源允许开采量计算模型。由此模型不仅可以求得地下水补给量(或允许开采量)的各种可能取值区间,也能得到各灰区间对应的主观可信度,从而为地下水资源管理决策提供了更为科学、丰富的信息,也为地下水开采的风险分析提供了依据。实例研究表明,运用盲数理论进行地下水允许开采量计算,所得结果较传统水文地质学方法计算结果更加符合实际情况。

Groundwater is an important water supply source for the northen cities in China. Because of without scientific evaluation and management on groundwater withdrawal in the past years, the phenomena of over-mining of groundwater resources are universal in these cities. In groundwater allowable withdrawal evaluation, the traditional method is based on determination model. In fact , there are some uncertainties in groundwater system. Based on the characteristics of objective randomness and subjective uncertainty of it, the blind number theory in unascertained mathematics is applied to groundwater resources evaluation. On the basis of defination of hydrogeological parameter blind numbers, a model for groundwater allowable withdrawal calcualtion is proposed . Using the model established, not only the possible interval values of groundwater supply but also their corresponding faith degree can be obtained. According to these useful information, the risk results of groundwater allowable withdrawal evaluation can be carried out. Case study shows that the results derived from the unascertained mathematics theory accord closer with practical situation than that of traditional method of groundwater allowable withdrawal calcualtion.